Presidential pause: How politics change moving patterns

MITCHELL, S.D. – It’s a rare sight to see Tim Allen in the wood-paneled office space just off of Mitchell’s Main Street. Sitting behind the counter on a Monday in October, he calls a customer.
“This is Tim with Tobin’s. Guys should be there probably about 3:00, 3:30 to move the stuff out of the basement. Okay. Yep. Thank you. You bet. Bye.”
Allen, one of the owners of North American moving company Tobin Transfer, is usually on the road, driving cross-country with a semitrailer full of people’s possessions.
But this year is a presidential election year and without fail (2020 doesn’t count because of the pandemic), business slows down. His cross-country shipments are down 7% so far this year.
“This is about the stupidest year I’ve seen,” Allen says.
And he’s seen a lot. Allen’s been in the business since he was 13 and started working full-time when his parents bought the company in 1978. His sister, Becky Riggs, was 14 when she started.
“Our parents didn’t let us go get into trouble and be hoodlums. They made us go to work,” says Riggs, also an owner.
Through the decades, the moving business has gone through many changes. Insurance costs climbed, labor supply dwindled and semi trucks with automatic transmissions became the norm.
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But there’s at least one constant. Every four years the moving business takes a dip. Riggs doesn’t even need to turn on the news to know there’s a presidential election.
“I don’t go to political rallies, but I know what’s going on as soon as the phone don’t ring,” she says.
The why makes sense when Allen explains it.
“Companies don’t know if the United States is going to take a different turn or if it’s going to go back or going to move forward, everything is in an uproar,” he says. So, many companies sit in a holding pattern, not relocating employees.  
Just last month at a global conference in Washington for relocation companies, this topic was discussed.
Anthony Horton, CEO of Corporate Relocation International (CRI) was there. This year the company’s volume is down 9-10% from 2023.
“Many companies sort of adopt a wait-and-see approach regarding hiring, relocations, other investments as they prefer to assess the political and regulatory landscape under the next administration before committing to any long-term plans,” he tells News Watch.
And this presidential election was particularly uncertain. Economic policy proposals from President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris were broad.
“They’re both in their own way a little difficult to pin down,” says Joseph Santos, director of Ness School of Management and Economics at South Dakota State University.
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“That’s the nature of political campaigning, to some extent. But they don’t really have attached to them really, clearly defined plans in terms of policy.”
North American Van Lines corporate spokesperson declined to speak citing the company’s strict policy not to comment on political matters.
Sirva, which owns North American, Allied and Global Van Lines, among other relocation companies, produces a podcast. In an October episode titled “The Vote that Moves: Exploring the Impact of Political Elections on Global Talent Mobility,” the participants discussed how 2024 is the biggest election year in world history, with half of the world’s population voting in 72 countries.  
Immigration is a key election topic globally, so who’s elected can make it harder for employees to relocate to certain countries. 
Business in 2020 was once-in-a-lifetime for Allen. “You could have ran 24 hours a day and not moved everybody,” he says.
He moved plenty of out-of-staters into South Dakota who were looking for fewer COVID restrictions and cheaper taxes, many from California and Washington. 
According to U-Haul migration data from more than 2 million transactions, more trucks left California than entered in 2020, with the largest net loss of self-movers, ranking last in the nation for growth that year. Washington dropped from a top 5 growth state in 2019 to 36, indicating more people were leaving. South Dakota placed 25th.
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In the past two years, Allen has been contacted by seven of those families he moved into South Dakota in 2020. They now want to move out saying, “We can’t deal with the politics in here,” Allen recalls.
California remained dead last for growth in 2023 and Washington moved back toward the top with 7th place, according to more than 2.5 million U-Haul transactions. South Dakota climbed to 19th because it still had more people coming than leaving.
The American Trucking Associations, an industry trade group, says the economy generally dictates the direction of the moving industry.
“While it may be true that there is a level of uncertainty surrounding each election, we do not have data to demonstrate any measurable impact of elections on the industry. Economic indicators such as the federal interest rate and inflation are much more impactful,” says spokesperson Jessica Gail.
Indeed, high interest rates serve a second punch this year to Allen’s moving business. People don’t want to upgrade their house with high interest rates on loans.  
“So people can’t get out of apartments and go to a home and start building equity neither. And it’s just kind of that domino effect,” he says.
In the office, Allen thumbs through a large desk calendar on the back counter. And yes, they prefer the paper. It’s easier, as Riggs will tell you. And a calendar doesn’t crash.
The daily squares filled with black ink show several moving appointments. But looks can be deceiving. They’re short moves.
 “These are both locals this afternoon,” Allen points to today’s date.
He expects cross-country travel to pick up in February, March and April. Until then, he spends more time in Mitchell with his wife. Allen’s unsure if she’s happy about that. “Could be not such a good thing,” he smiles.
This story was produced by South Dakota News Watch, an independent, nonprofit news organization. Read more in-depth stories at sdnewswatch.org and sign up for an email every few days to get stories as soon as they’re published. Contact freelance journalist Megan Luther at [email protected].